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EI

electroCore, Inc. (ECOR)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 revenue grew 23% year over year to $6.7M but was a slight miss versus S&P Global consensus ($6.72M actual vs $6.93M estimate; GAAP EPS -$0.47 vs -$0.447 estimate), with softness in U.S. commercial Rx and TAC-STIM offset by strong VA channel and Truvaga growth . Revenue Consensus Mean and EPS estimates from S&P Global shown with asterisks below.*
  • Mix and operating cost seasonality mattered: gross margin held at 85% (up 100 bps YoY), but SG&A rose on seasonality and one-time NeuroMetrix transaction/severance (~$665k total) .
  • Management introduced 2025 revenue guidance of ~$30M and net cash use for the next three quarters of $3.8–$4.3M, and reiterated mid‑80s gross margin expectations, framing a path to cash neutrality at ~$9M quarterly revenue via 65% contribution margins on incremental sales .
  • Near-term catalysts: (1) five-year VA Federal Supply Schedule (FSS) contract effective June 15, 2025; (2) NeuroMetrix/Quell integration and potential lift in H2 2025–2026; (3) Truvaga expansion (Amazon channel, Apple Health integration) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well
    • VA and wellness momentum: Rx gammaCore VA revenue up 22% YoY to $4.7M; Truvaga up 187% YoY to $1.1M; gross margin held at 85% . “We maintained gross margins...” .
    • Structural wins: new five-year VA FSS contract begins June 15, 2025, supporting durable VA access .
    • Portfolio expansion: closed NeuroMetrix; Quell added ~$170k unaudited Q1 net sales and broadens addressable market; pilot distribution for Spark Biomedical’s Sparrow underway in limited VA sites .
  • What Went Wrong
    • Softer channels: U.S. commercial Rx down 33% YoY to $289k as cash-pay users migrate to Truvaga; TAC-STIM down 70% YoY to $90k and remains lumpy .
    • Higher operating costs: SG&A rose on seasonality, severance, and NeuroMetrix transaction-related expenses (~$665k) .
    • Cash burn: cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and marketable securities fell to ~$8.0M at 3/31/25 (from ~$12.2M at 12/31/24), and net cash used in operating activities in Q1 was $4.4M (seasonal) .

Financial Results

Revenue, EPS, and Gross Margin vs prior year and consensus

MetricQ1 2024Q1 2025 (Actual)Q1 2025 (Consensus)
Revenue ($USD Millions)$5.443 $6.719 $6.929*
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)-$0.53 -$0.47 -$0.447*
Gross Margin (%)84% 85%
  • Q1 2025 revenue and EPS were slight misses vs S&P Global consensus; gross margin matched management’s mid‑80s expectation . Revenue Consensus Mean and EPS from S&P Global shown with asterisks.*

Quarterly revenue trend (for context)

PeriodQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$6.554 $7.0 $6.719

Channel/segment detail (YoY)

Channel (in $000s)Q1 2025Q1 2024YoY Change
Rx gammaCore – VA4,721 3,875 22%
Rx gammaCore – U.S. Commercial289 433 -33%
Outside the United States513 449 14%
Truvaga1,106 385 187%
Total Before TAC-STIM6,629 5,142 29%
TAC-STIM90 301 -70%
Total Revenue6,719 5,443 23%

Profitability and operating metrics

MetricQ1 2025Q1 2024
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$5.706 $4.555
Gross Margin (%)85% 84%
Total OpEx ($USD Millions)~$9.528 $8.404
Loss from Operations ($USD Millions)-$3.822 -$3.849
GAAP Net Loss ($USD Millions)-$3.855 -$3.506
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)-$0.47 -$0.53
Adjusted EBITDA Net Loss ($USD Millions)-$3.054 -$3.163
Cash, Cash Equivalents, Restricted Cash & Marketable Securities ($USD Millions)~$8.0 at 3/31/25 ~$12.2 at 12/31/24 (for ref)

KPIs

KPIQ1 2025Prior Period
VA facilities purchasing gammaCore (cumulative)175 (through 3/31/25) 151 (through 3/31/24)
Truvaga ROAS~2.26x
Truvaga return rate~10–11%
Monthly VA revenue cadence (Mar/Apr 2025)~$1.7M per month

Non-GAAP adjustments include D&A, stock comp, inventory reserve changes, severance/other related charges, and one-time transaction charges related to NeuroMetrix, among others; reconciliation provided in the release .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total RevenueFY 2025None (withheld pending NeuroMetrix close) ~$30.0M Introduced
Net Cash Used (next 3 quarters)Q2–Q4 2025$3.8–$4.3M Introduced
Gross MarginOngoing“Mid‑80s%” expectation “Mid‑80s%” expectation Maintained
SG&A – Variable Sales & Marketing2025~30% of related sales ~30% of related sales; fixed G&A in line with 2024 Maintained/clarified
R&D ExpenseNear-term~steady around $642k per quarter near term New color
VA FSS Contract2025–2030Extension in process New 5‑year contract effective 6/15/2025–6/14/2030 Finalized

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ3 2024 (two quarters ago)Q4 2024 (prior quarter)Q1 2025 (current)Trend
VA channel momentum & contractingStrong VA growth; 75% YoY VA/DoD in Q3; record revenue FSS extensions; VA/DoD +85% FY; 170 VA facilities by YE Sequential recovery; new 5‑yr FSS effective 6/15/25; 175 facilities; field force expansion Improving access; durable
Truvaga (DTC wellness)147% YoY in Q3; scaling with ROAS leverage Q4 seasonal spike; ROAS 2.99; Amazon pilot in Feb’25 Q1 sales $1.1M (+187% YoY); ROAS ~2.26; Amazon traction; Apple Health integration Expanding channels
NeuroMetrix (Quell)Definitive agreement announced Dec’24 Target close in Q2’25; cross-sell into VA Closed; ~$170k unaudited Q1 Quell; supply-limited near term; expect H2’25/2026 contribution Integration underway
Spark Biomedical (Sparrow)Distribution deal announced; limited VA pilots planned Pilots starting Q2’25; large TAM; revenue more 2026-dependent Early pilot
Gross marginMid‑80s sustainable Mid‑80s expected despite tariffs 85% in Q1; mid‑80s view reiterated Stable
Tariffs/macroLow exposure to recent tariff policy Minimal exposure; components largely domestic/S.E. Asia; limited GM impact Low risk
R&D/RegulatoryPTSD program FDA sponsor meeting in March Awaiting FDA feedback on PTSD; R&D steady; medical affairs support Pending

Management Commentary

  • “electroCore delivered continued growth in the first quarter, increasing total revenue 23% and growing total revenue excluding TAC-STIM by 29%.”
  • “We maintained gross margins but incurred increased G&A expenses… seasonality… severance… and… NeuroMetrix transaction, for a combined $665,000…”
  • “March and April ’25 monthly revenues in our VA channel have accelerated to about $1.7 million.”
  • “We model that the business could be cash neutral with quarterly revenue of about $9 million… toward the end of this year or early in 2026.”
  • “We received a new FSS contract… effective on June 15, 2025, for at least 5 years until 2030.”
  • On Quell margin: “I’m optimistic that we’ll be well above the 60% mark [gross margin], but… we’ll have better numbers… in 90 days.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Quell integration and margin outlook: Management expects better overhead absorption than legacy NURO; supply-limited near term; targeting >60% GM but specifics pending manufacturing restart in Rockaway .
  • Tariff exposure: Minimal; parts largely domestic/S.E. Asia; even doubling some component costs would be only a few GM points .
  • TAC-STIM trajectory: Lumpy and hard to model; near-term ~$100k/quarter; larger RFPs outstanding but timing uncertain .
  • VA growth and salesforce: New 5-year FSS; adding W‑2 managers and 1099 reps to reaccelerate VA and integration of Quell/Sparrow .
  • Truvaga KPIs: ROAS ~2.26; scaling media 5% monthly; early Amazon traction with a few hundred units sold since mid‑Feb .
  • Cash/capex cadence: Q1 operating cash outflow $4.4M due to seasonal/legal/audit; modeling ~$4.0M net cash required for rest of 2025 .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 vs S&P Global consensus: Revenue $6.72M vs $6.93M estimate (slight miss); GAAP EPS -$0.47 vs -$0.447 estimate (slight miss). Management cited seasonal one-time costs and mix (soft TAC-STIM, U.S. commercial Rx decline) offset by VA/Truvaga strength . Revenue and EPS consensus values marked with asterisks below.*
  • Forward consensus (as of current period): revenue estimates rise into 2026; EPS loss narrows sequentially (see table). These imply modest upward trajectory consistent with management’s ~$30M FY25 revenue outlook and path to improved cash burn .

Forward consensus (S&P Global)*

MetricQ3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026
Revenue Consensus Mean ($)7,875,600*9,023,600*9,759,000*10,683,200*
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)-0.4000*-0.3920*-0.3100*-0.2220*
Revenue – # of Estimates5*5*5*5*
EPS – # of Estimates5*5*5*5*

Q1 2025 point-in-time consensus (S&P Global)*

MetricQ1 2025 ConsensusQ1 2025 Actual
Revenue ($)6,929,000*6,719,000
Primary EPS ($)-0.44667*-0.47

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • VA resilience + contracting durability: The new five‑year FSS and sequential VA rebound (Mar/Apr run‑rate) underpin near-term growth and visibility in the core Rx channel .
  • Portfolio catalysts layered onto established channels: Quell (closed) and Sparrow (pilots) create incremental growth vectors in H2’25/2026 through the VA and DTC ecosystems .
  • DTC flywheel: Truvaga growth remains strong with improving channel breadth (Amazon, Apple Health), ROAS >2x, and a systematic 5% monthly media ramp—supporting continued mix diversity and contribution leverage .
  • Margins steady; cost discipline matters: Mid‑80s gross margin intact; S&M variable at ~30% of sales with fixed G&A aligned to 2024, enabling operating leverage as revenue scales .
  • Cash path: Management modeling ~$3.8–$4.3M net cash use across Q2–Q4 and a cash-neutral inflection around ~$9M quarterly revenue, framing potential upside if Quell ramps faster than expected .
  • Modeling notes: Expect continued VA-led growth with U.S. commercial Rx flat near-term (cash-pay migration to Truvaga), TAC‑STIM lumpy; watch Quell manufacturing restart and VA add‑to‑contract timing for upside risk .
  • Trading setup: Slight top- and bottom-line misses appear execution- and mix‑driven against steady GM and healthy VA/DTC trends; narrative likely pivots to contract durability (FSS), NeuroMetrix integration updates, and DTC channel KPIs as near-term stock catalysts .